This entry is part 4 of 4 in the series Annual Review

Welcome to the 4th annual review of telecommunications infrastructure development in Africa. This is the first year I have managed to get the Africa Telecoms Infrastructure Review out in a truly timely manner, perhaps that bodes well for my taxes too. The review contains links to 140 news articles on telecom development in Africa in 2017.

Undersea Cables

The development of African undersea fibre cables has something in common with American politics in that there are only so many times you can say “I can’t believe this is still happening” before it becomes mundane and annoying.  In the case of undersea cables though, it is great news.  New cables continue be announced.  Announcements included the Pakistan East Africa Cable Express (PEACE) cable which promises to link Pakistan with East Africa; the IOX cable which will connect South Africa with India via Mauritius, Rodrigues, and Reunion; the Australia West Express (AWE) cable which will link Djibouti with Australia; and, the FLY-LION3 cable, announced by Orange which will connect Mayotte with Grand Comore.

In terms of previously announced projects:

  • the AAE-1 cable, which links Europe and Asia with landing points in Egypt and Djibouti, went live in June of 2017;
  • the long-awaited ACE cable extension down to South Africa is finally under construction;
  • both the South Atlantic Cable System (SACS) connecting Angola to Brazil and the Djibouti Africa Regional Express (DARE) cable connecting Djibouti with Kenya via Somalia passed a number of critical milestones in 2017;
  • on the slightly more speculative front, the South Atlantic Inter Link (SAIL) cable linking Cameroon with Brazil also appears to have passed some key milestones and the South Atlantic Express (SAEx) cable apparently signed an MOU with the island of St Helena;
  • notable by their absence in 2017 news are the Africa-1 cable, the LiquidSea cable, and the Gulf to Africa (G2A) cable, all of which featured in 2016 but have not been heard of since.

All of these cables are long-term bets by governments and operators on the growth of demand for data in the regions.  In general this is great news for Internet users in Africa. More cables and landing points mean more competition and lower prices.  Whether or not the investors can sustain them and make a profit from them is a somewhat moot point for the consumer because, once the fibre is laid, someone is likely to continue to operate it.

One trend that is clearly visible in 2017 is the strategic investments by a number of African countries toward becoming regional hubs for Internet traffic.  We have already seen that happen with economic hubs like South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya and Ghana to some degree.  The last year has seen smaller countries looking to shift the focus. Djibouti in particular seems to be making a big play to become a significant East-West nexus point for cables. Already host to the
EASSy, Seacom, EIG, and SEA-ME-WE cables 3 and 5; the news this year of AAE-1 going live and plans for the DARE and PEACE cables landing makes the tiny country of Djibouti a massive nexus point for the Internet.  On the east coast of Africa, Cameroon seems to be making a similar move.  Currently the WACS, SAT3, and the NCSCS cable land there but with the proposed ACE landing and the planned link to Brazil through the SAIL cable, Cameroon clearly intends to position itself as a hub although the relatively low state of telecommunications network development and competition in the country makes this a bit of a surprising play.  Angola too seems to be strategically positioning itself with the SACS cable link to Brazil.

African Undersea Cables in 2017

NewsUndersea CableDate
Djibouti Telecom and TESubCom DARE contract comes into forceDARE21-12-2017
Survey starts on Chinese-backed Peace cable from Pakistan to Kenya, Egypt and South AfricaPEACE10-11-2017
South Atlantic Cable System begins the deep-water installationSACS06-11-2017
New subsea route between US, India via Brazil, South AfricaIOX06-11-2017
New submarine cable to connect to SA in 2019 - TechCentralIOX26-10-2017
St Helena signs MoU for link to South Atlantic Express cable, set to receive submarine cable by early 2020SAEx27-10-2017
Funding settled for PEACE submarine cable project - LightwavePEACE17-10-2017
Cable Compendium: a guide to the week’s submarine and terrestrial developmentsACE, ELLALINK13-10-2017
IOX Cable signs up Mauritius Telecom as subsea anchor tenantIOX25-09-2017
AAE-1 submarine cable enters serviceAAE-127-06-2017
Djibouti and Somalia to share submarine optic fibreDARE24-08-2017
Ceiba 2CEIBA-231-05-2017
Guinea Bissau reaches $47 million deal on submarine cableACE19-07-2017
Orange signe un accord pour la construction d’un nouveau câble sous-marin très haut débit entre Mayotte et Grande ComoreFLY-LION312-07-2017
Advancing Digitalisation In AfricaSACS11-07-2017
China Breakthroughs: SAIL ahead on South Atlantic cable networkSAIL07-05-2017
The AAE-1 subsea cable system enters serviceAAE-129-06-2017
Huawei signs South Atlantic Inter Link subsea cable contractSAIL28-06-2017
IOX Cable and ASN to build 8,850km subsea systemIOX01-06-2017
Africa-Americas Undersea Cable Nears CompletionSACS19-04-2017
Brazil-Africa fiber cable project makes progressSACS03-03-2017
Djibouti Telecom Announces it will Invest in Australia West Express (AWE) Submarine Cable SystemAWE12-01-2017

Terrestrial Backbone Fibre

The development of terrestrial fibre optic infrastructure on the continent continues apace with the Chinese government, the World Bank and the African Development Bank leading as the principal financiers of these networks.  Huawei continues to dominate the terrestrial fibre business in Africa. No other name is seen remotely as often as theirs linked to the construction of a terrestrial fibre network on the continent.  Power grid operators continued to get into the game with Kenya’s KETRACO and Malawi’s ESCOM featuring in 2017.

Perhaps what is most notable in 2017 are moves by both Google and Facebook on the terrestrial fibre front.  Google spun off its Project Link initiative into a fully-fledged independent company called CSquared, with joint investment from Google, IFC, South Africa’s Convergence Partners, and Mitsui & Co.  The creation of a regional wholesale fibre optic operator focused on metro network development is great news. CSquared operates metro fibre networks in Kampala, Uganda and Accra, Ghana and are about to break ground in Monrovia, Liberia.  There are rumours that Maputo, Mozambique might be a fourth destination.  This should be good news for both broadband speeds and competition wherever they land.  More surprising news was Facebook’s announcement that they are investing in a fibre optic cable in Northern Uganda along with BCS and Airtel.  BCS and Airtel already operate significant fibre networks in Uganda but what Facebook is doing with this investment is something that they have yet to reveal.  My best guess is that this represents an exploratory move into the terrestrial fibre market in Africa but does not (yet) have any sort of strategy behind it.

Trying to accurately map the development of terrestrial fibre is a challenge.  A single cable can have multiple owners making it difficult to be sure whether there is one cable or multiple cables in a given region.  Worse, operators often engage in “capacity swaps” in which they trade some of their capacity on a cable they own or partly own with another operator’s cable capacity.  This is great for operators in terms of extending their network and building resiliency through multiple routes but is a real conundrum when trying to figure out who owns a particular physical stretch of cable.

In the last two years I have attempted to sum up the amount of investment and kilometres of fibre announced in the preceding year.  This year I have found the news too vague on both fronts to make it worth doing.

African Terrestrial Fibre Projects in 2017

CountryKilometresInvestment ($M)DateFinancingContractor/Operator
West & Central Africa19-12-2017Angola Cables
Burkina Faso (rel rel)20019111-12-2017Bank of China, BNP ParibasHuawei
Gabon5202701-12-2017World BankHuawei
Pan African200,00010,00009-03-2017China Communications Service Corp. Ltd
Nigeria18,00009-11-2017Gov't of Nigeria
Burkina Faso18013-11-2017World Bank
Kenya5.807-11-2017Telkom Kenya
Kenya (rel rel)11,0003,50023-10-2017Kenya Electricity Transmission Company (Ketraco)Liquid Telecom Kenya
Malawi (rel rel)2317-07-2017Electricity Supply Corporation of Malawi (Escom)Huawei
Kenyacapacity upgrade05-09-2017Liquid Telecom
Uganda, TanzaniaAfrican Development Bank
South Africa10030-05-2017Dark Fibre Africa
Cameroon, CAR, Congo, Nigeria
Uganda77008-03-2017Facebook, Airtel, BCSAirtel,BCS
Zimbabwe04-04-2017China Exim BankTelOne
South Africa
Uganda76520-09-2017Government of ChinaHuawei
Cameroon: Optical fiber was extended by 4,000 km in 2017, to reach 12,000 km 400011-12-2017
Hurricane Electric expands global network to East Africa Data Centre in Nairobi12-10-2017

Fibre To The Home and Video on Demand (VoD)

Demand for video streaming services like Netflix (and an increasing number of African competitors) grew significantly in 2017.  This has spurred demand for Fibre To The Home (FTTH) services capable of handling multiple media streams.  Or perhaps it is the other way around.  FTTH is growing faster than anyone imagined.  A number of factors are contributing to this:

  • the growth of undersea and terrestrial fibre optic networks is bringing vast capacity to metro centres;
  • streaming services like Netflix are a growing phenomenon globally;
  • the digital switchover which should have seen a transition from analogue to digital terrestrial broadcasting is incomplete in most African countries and doesn’t appear to be building the expected market for terrestrial broadcast services;
  • cost of deployment of FTTH networks is dropping; and,
  • there are a host of devices from tablets to phones to set-top boxes that can host streaming content once it is in the home.

That alone might be enough to be a perfect storm for digital terrestrial broadcasting but satellite broadcasting services are growing and offering more competition in this space as well.  At the pace streaming services are growing, the fortunate countries might turn out to be those who still haven’t gotten around to the digital switchover.

African FTTH and VoD Announcements in 2017

Zeop covers 60% of Reunion with FTTHReunion29-11-2017
Sénégal: Lancement officiel de la fibre optique - Sonatel/Orange rend visite à sa 1ére cliente fibrée - allAfrica.comSenegal22-11-2017
Safaricom kicks off FTTH regional roll-out | Internet News in KenyaKenya11-10-2017
Zuku TV set to launch Unlimited home internet in Uganda : Check out pricing details and more -Uganda02-10-2017
High speed fibre Internet connections double to 54,700 - Business DailyKenya02-10-2017
Safaricom says 81,000 homes linked to its fibre - Business DailyKenya03-09-2017
Vumatel to offer 100Mbit/s uncapped home fibre in townships for R89/month - TechCentralSouth Africa01-09-2017
Safaricom to adopt Huawei’s E2E FTTH solutionKenya25-08-2017
Seacom acquires MacroLan to extend fibre reach - ITWeb AfricaSouth Africa07-08-2017
KETRACO seeks telecoms operator partners for fibre network rolloutKenya31-03-2017
CST doubles fibre network speeds to 200MbpsSão Tomé & Príncipe05-04-2017
Afrihost claims to have tripled fibre coverageSouth Africa14-02-2017
Vodafone Ghana launches Fibre Broadband - BusinessGhana News | BusinessGhana11-02-2017
Vivendi granted Gabonese FTTH licenceGabon25-01-2017
Kwese TV partners with Liquid Telecom to roll-out Kwese Play and Roku Internet TV in UgandaUganda20-09-2017

Cell C Black – The future of entertainment
South Africa01-11-2017

Licensed Spectrum

Making licensed spectrum available has proven an ongoing challenge for regulators on the continent.  In April I wrote about the results of recent  of spectrum auctions on the continent, outlining the challenges they have faced.  Conventional wisdom is that auctions are the fairest mechanism for making high-demand spectrum available to the market.  This may be true, at least in theory, but the reserve prices being set  by governments are directly undermining that aim.  The lure of a quick hit to the treasury is eclipsing the more strategic, but longer term, agenda of making access more pervasive and affordable.

Ghana auctioned 800MHz spectrum in 2016 but only MTN was willing to pay the reserve price and spent $64M acquiring that spectrum.  The regulator has since announced their intention to re-auction the rest of the spectrum but MTN have insisted (and the regulator has acquiesced) that anyone acquiring 800MHz spectrum must match the price that they paid.  Vodafone has spent much of 2017 trying to negotiate some sort of compromise with no success to date.  A similar situation exists in Nigeria with MTN and 2.6GHz spectrum.

The one country making real progress in the assignment of new spectrum is Kenya.  They have avoided auctions entirely.  The Kenyan regulator has assigned several spectrum licences in both the 800MHz and 700MHz bands in the last two years.  The downside of this approach is a lack of transparency on how the winners are chosen which has provoked complaints from operators.  The upside is that the spectrum is being used, now.

Angola announced an auction of 800MHz spectrum which was to have taken place in August of 2017.  Since the announcement there has been no news of either progress or outcomes of the auction.

South Africa remains mired in acrimonious debate over the government’s plan to create a Wireless Open Access Network (WOAN).  Using new and existing spectrum bands, the WOAN is envisage to be a wholesale wireless network that operators would be expected to use to deliver service.  The idea behind the WOAN is to have operators compete on services not infrastructure.  National wholesale wireless networks are a relatively untested strategy with only Rwanda and Mexico having implemented them.  The jury is still out on Mexico but Rwanda’s network cannot be declared a success as prices remain high and usage limited.  This doesn’t mean that WOANs are a bad strategy but South Africa’s “all-in” approach may not be the best way of finding out.

I find myself very sympathetic to the strategies being pursued by both Kenya and South Africa because it seems clear to me that auctions create perverse incentives for governments, especially cash-strapped ones.  The chair of the Australian regulator, Rod Sims, hits the nail on the head when he says:

the value of spectrum lies in the economic and social benefits it can provide to citizens and consumers, not in financial returns to the Budget.

Countries stand to benefit far more both economically and socially from more pervasive and more affordable communication than from any treasury windfall from a spectrum auction but that takes a longer term view that most politicians seem willing to embrace.

African Spectrum Auction News in 2017

Kenya11-05-2017Kenya's CA Awards JTL 4G Frequency Spectrum on Questionable Terms700MHz
Kenya07-12-2017Kenya, Chinese firms partner to launch faster, cheaper internet700MHz
Nigeria15-11-20172018: NCC Targets 30% Broadband Penetration With New Spectrum Auctions700MHz, 2.5GHz, 2.6GHz
Ghana07-09-2017NCA Gives Opportunity to Telcos to Deploy 3G Coverage to Rural Areas » National Communications Authority900MHz
Tanzania09-11-2017Airtel sets for massive network transformation900MHz
Nigeria12-11-2017NCC plans new spectrum auctions700MHz
Ghana11-09-2017Rural areas to receive improved 3G through 900MHz rollout900MHz
Ghana05-09-2017Vodafone in 'constant' talks with NCA over 4G licence – CEO800MHz
Kenya31-08-2017Heavy debt load leaves Airtel in Sh8 billion loss800MHz
Angola26-07-2017Inacom anuncia as datas para o seu primeiro leilão de frequencias800MHz
Angola25-07-2017Inacom marks the first auction800MHz
Angola28-07-2017Angola launching open frequency auction for the first time; 800MHz applications due in August800MHz
Ghana20-07-2017Ghana's govt rejects calls for 4G license price slash800MHz
South Africa14-07-2017Gigaba's action plan for spectrum700MHz, 800MHz, 2.6GHz
Ghana10-07-2017Cost of 4G spectrum won’t be reduced – Ursula to telcos800MHz
Kenya10-05-2017CA gives company multibillion-shilling licence700MHz
Nigeria10-05-2017Nigeria's tech regulator takes on unlicensed spectrum users5GHz
South Africa12-02-2017Icasa defers spectrum auction indefinitely800MHz, 2.6GHz
South Africa09-02-2017Cell C wants Vodacom and MTN to give back spectrum2.1GHz, 2.3GHz
Kenya06-01-2017Safaricom pays USD25m for 4G licence800MHz
Kenya04-01-2017Safaricom pays Sh2.5bn fees for high-speed Internet band800MHz
Nigeria03-01-2017Why telcos may shun spectrum auction2.6GHz

LTE networks continue to spread as operators upgrade their infrastructure.  Network announcements this year have been notable in their failure to mention what spectrum bands are being used by the operators.  I can only imagine that this is being treated as technical information that is not of interest to readers as opposed to the strategic information that it represents.  Knowing whether new bands are being utilised or existing bands re-purposed is essential to understanding the evolution of the market and competition yet it rarely seems to get reported.  Unlike previous years I am unable to give a breakdown of which frequencies have proven most popular.

African LTE Network Launches & Expansions in 2017

KenyaJamii Telecom (rel rel)Launch07-12-2017LTE
Nigeria, Uganda, Tanzania, DRCSmileUpgrade16-11-2017VoLTE
EgyptVodafone, Orange (rel)Launch25-09-2017LTE
ReunionTelco OIExpansion13-09-2017LTE
ZimbabweTelecel (rel)Launch24-08-2017LTE
BurundiEconet LeoExpansion08-01-2017LTE

Unlicensed and Dynamic Spectrum

WiFi networks, whether commercial, government, or community, have continued to grow at a rapid pace on the continent.  Both governments and network operators are realising that wherever they have high-speed backhaul networks, it is a small marginal cost to add WiFi access points at key points on those networks.  The fact that WiFi is unlicensed (but not unregulated) combined with its performance and low-cost have made this an obvious access technology choice in countries where gaining access to licensed spectrum remains a challenge.  What remains to be seen is what business models prove to be most successful for WiFi networks.  In South Africa, Project Isizwe is evolving from a government-funded non-profit to an advertisement-driven model.  Ad-driven revenue appears to be the principal alternative to straight pay-for-access models although some networks, like Surf WiFi in Kenya are doing both.  In the Eastern Cape in South Africa, Zenzeleni Networks have established the first telecommunications cooperative in the country.   In Rwanda, African Renewable Energy Distributor (ARED) are attempting to combining solar-power energy services and WiFi.

Facebook have also gotten into the WiFi space on the continent in a big way with their Express WiFi program.  Both Tizeti in Nigeria and Surf WiFi in Kenya announced partnerships with Facebook in 2017 to roll out Express WiFi hotspots.  You may be wondering just what is Express WiFi.  Their website is remarkably parsimonious with information about it.  In short, it is an agent platform for WiFi operators that manages sign-up, revenue generation and sharing for Express WiFi agents.  ExpressWiFi relies on an existing Wireless ISP (WISP)’s network but it also brings investment to help the WISP expand its network.  For example, Surf WiFi operate their own agent network as well as an Express WiFi network in Kenya.  It may not sound that exciting but this is where the battleground for WiFi will be fought with the management platforms and agent networks that enable WiFi networks to scale.  Microsoft, too, have been busy with their Airband Initiative which provides seed funding to promising energy and connectivity startups.  Both C3 in Malawi and ARED in Rwanda have received support through this program.

There are signs of consolidation as well as Project Isizwe’s parent organisation HeroTel acquired its 25th WISP in November.  As more proven successful business models emerge, expect more consolidation to happen.

With TV White Space (Dynamic Spectrum) technologies, things are more frustrating.  Dynamic spectrum remains an extremely promising technology, especially for rural service delivery in African countries where the spectrum is relatively unoccupied.  But regulators have been reluctant to take the bold step of formally establishing regulations allowing dynamic spectrum deployments.  This uncertainty sends the wrong signals to manufacturers who should be churning out dynamic spectrum devices in the hundreds of thousands by now.   Bright spots this year include Malawi where the regulator, while stopping short of formal regulations, has allowed startup C3 to use TVWS spectrum and Rwanda, where the regulator has carried out a successful pilot and made positive noises about introducing regulation.  Also, Microsoft, a tireless supporter of dynamic spectrum has partnered with UK domain name registrar, Nominet, to deploy more TVWS networks on the continent.

African WiFi & Dynamic Spectrum News in 2017

NigeriaWiFi21-12-2017Tizeti Network Limited selects Cambium Networks wireless broadband connectivity solutions | total telecom
NigeriaWiFi11-12-2017MainOne links with Facebook, Tizeti on internet connectivity project
South AfricaWiFi23-11-2017Holding out for a hero: HeroTel acquires another regional ISP
South AfricaWiFitoomuchwifi
RegionalWiFi10-11-2017Konnect Africa brings Wi-Fi to rural African communities
NigeriaWiFi08-11-2017AfricaCom 2017: Tizeti and Facebook to expand Wi-Fi express in Nigeria
SouthAfricaWiFi28-07-2017Low-cost comms co-op Zenzeleni Networks provides cheaper voice and data for village community
NigeriaWiFi26-06-2017Nigerian Tech Startup Tizeti Secures $2.1M To Bring Affordable Wireless Internet To Africa
RegionalWiFi30-05-2017Liquid Telecom's Wi-Fi Roaming Hub Aims to Connect African Telcos and Reduce Roaming Charges
NigeriaWiFi10-05-2017Nigeria's tech regulator takes on unlicensed spectrum users
NigeriaWiFi15-05-2017Free Wi-Fi in Lagos Now Available
SouthAfricaWiFi26-04-2017South Africa: Over 1 million township residents to get Wifi
KenyaWiFi29-03-2017Facebook launches low-cost internet service, Express Wifi, in Kenya
MauritiusWiFi10-04-2017Mauritius government launches 350 new Wi-Fi zones in 20 locations nationwide
KenyaWiFi29-03-2017Facebook takes on Telcos with low-cost internet
RwandaWiFi10-02-2017Rwandan solar-powered kiosk company wants to create Africa’s biggest wifi network
SouthAfricaWiFiIkeja | Unlimited Wireless Internet at your House
KenyaWiFi02-01-2017AccessKenya returns to low-cost home Internet with US partner
KenyaWiFi04-01-2017Race for Internet subscribers goes to small towns as firms boost
RegionalDynamic Spectrum06-01-2017Nominet and Microsoft bringing broadband to Africa via TV white spaces
RwandaDynamic Spectrum07-01-2017Test for affordable internet shows promise, say officials
South AfricaWiFi13-12-2017Tshwane wi-fi talks stall
South AfricaWiFi09-12-2017How a remote South African rural community, with barely any electricity, built its own ISP
MalawiDynamic Spectrum28-04-2017C3 to launch a nationwide wireless data network using Mimosa, TV White Spaces and Wi-Fi – Targeting Corporates, SMEs and NGOs


Intelsat launched Intelsat 37e in 2017 offering Ku-band and C-band services over Africa.  What is significant about 37e is that it is one of a new generation of High Throughput Satellites (HTS) that represent a leap forward in terms of broadband capacity for satellite services at prices that (hopefully) are competitive with terrestrial offerings.  Algeria launched Alcomsat-1 which will offer Ka-band services to the country and Ku-band services to Tunisia, Northern Chad and Northern Sudan.


Undersea cables are a bellwether of network development on the continent.  The expansion and upgrading of existing cables as well as announcements of new initiatives bodes extremely well for the continued rapid growth of access.  Increased international capacity is a trigger for investment in terrestrial fibre network capacity so expect that trend to continue upward as well.  As demand for broadband grows, fibre networks become ever more strategic elements of the Internet ecosystem.  Making sure that fibre backbones are available equitably and affordably to all players will become an increasingly strategic question.  I written about how that might be achieved with state-owned fibre networks but sometimes it just takes the arrival of a company with a different business model to shake things up.  One of the most significant but least reported African telecom news items of 2017 was the arrival of global IP backbone company, Hurricane Electric (HE), in Kenya.  By establishing a Point of Presence (PoP) in Nairobi, customers can connect directly in to HE’s massive global Internet network at prices that are shaking up the East African market.

Beyond affordable and accessible backhaul networks, the key to network growth on the continent is access to wireless spectrum.  Spectrum auctions are notoriously hard to run well and often don’t run at all if the reserve price is set too high.  Where they do work, they tend to benefit the incumbents who have the deepest pockets.  The lack of progress across the continent in 2017 in making spectrum available is a sign that new strategies should be explored.  Whether a WOAN or dynamic spectrum or something new, regulators need to diversify their regulatory strategies in the same way that investors diversify their portfolios to mitigate risk.  The continued rapid growth of WiFi networks across the continent are a very positive sign of the pent-up energy that is ready to invest in network development if affordable backhaul and wireless spectrum is available.  Unlicensed spectrum has a very high upside but represents very little downside risk for regulators.  Worth thinking about.

This work would not have been possible without the support of the Network Startup Resource Center

[n.b. the Satellite section was added two days after the first publication of review]

Series Navigation<< Africa Telecoms Infrastructure in 2016

Posted by Steve Song

@stevesong local telco policy activist. social entrepreneur. founder of @villagetelco #africa #telecoms #opensource #privacy #wireless #spectrum #data

  • Fiber guy

    Good article but overlooked the China grand plan:
    Will China takeover African connectivity?

  • Steve Song

    Thanks for sharing that article. Lots of interesting links. I think it is impossible to characterise African telecoms in terms of influence by just one country but China is obviously a massive influence.

  • Thanks to Ashesh Mishra from O3B for pointing out that I had neglected coverage of Satellite news. I have updated the review with a Satellite section which I expect to be much larger for next year.

  • Tome

    As you said China plan is to buy as many companies as they can.
    They buy high technological companies, entertainment companies and hotels.
    So I was surprised that none Chinese telecom company isn’t present in Africa.
    I was thinking that in 2015. they could come by buying some smaller operators (maybe from LAP Green) and later when Airtel sold few of their operators and now Tigo sell their and focus their operations to Middle and South America.

    It would be good that China mobile buys MTN, but better would be if they buy smaller operators and merge them.
    I don’t think that Orange will buy, because it would be hard to merge them in some countries, because of competition rules.
    They would need to sell some operators in some countries, so better to sell MTN to someone new.
    After consolidation in Africa we would have Orange, MTN, China Mobile and Viettel.
    4 players in all countries would be okay.

    Imo there will be 10 operators in world in future (if all countries liberate their markets).
    1 from USA
    5 from Europe (Orange, Deutsch telecom, Telenor, Vodafone, Telefonica)
    3 from Asia (China Mobile or some other from China, Axiata and Viettel)
    1 from middle East (Batelco, Ooreedo, STC and Omantel merge in one telecom)

    As Telia sold their operators in Middle Asia and Tele2 sell too some, so next move will be merge of Telenor, Telia and Tele2 in one scandinavian operator.
    Austria telecom could be acquired by some Asian operator.
    Even Vodafone and Telenor could be taken over by someone too, so we would have 8 global telecoms.
    American Movil tried to buy operators in EU, but give up from that.
    They bought netherlands KPN and stake in Austria telecom.
    KPN they sold and not sure how is situation with Austria telecom.

    It would be good that markets consolidate and be same as in EU where they plan to have 1 market for all countries. (something which happened in Uganda, Kenya..
    I expect that soon all operators will be MVNOs, precisely they will sell their towers to other companies and those companies will share towers to others and it will be good thing.
    Best would be if countries have own tower and fibre network which they give to operators for some sum of money.
    Problem is that countries like to get as much money as they can, so they do for their public sector and not peoples in global. 🙁

    In Croatia we sold our fibre network together with national operator to Deutsch Telecom and we still have monopoly on fixed internet, precisely 70% of users are in that telecom.
    Some tried to battle, but it wasn’t going well.
    In last few years 2’nd ranked MNO took few cable, ADSL, FTTH operators and there are now only 3 players for fixed internet.
    We will see will this 3’rd smaller player (optima telekom) be acquired by Tcom (DT) or VIP (Austria Telecom) or maybe some 3’rd foreign operator.
    Imo it only option is to go to VIP if not some new entrant, so we would have duopoly.
    Tcom maintain operator for banks which are majority owner of telecom.

    About your article.
    Not sure why you think that Orange is gone?
    I agree that Tigo and Airtel will be bought by someone.
    Zain will be bought by Omantel.
    Not sure who will buy Etisalat, but someone will.

    Croatia is one of countries which will be in that ”Silk road” and it’s very hard for East and Southeast EU nations to participate in it, because EU don’t really like China and China can’t buy 100% or majority stake in government companies which are in EU, precisely only 49%.

    We will see what will happen in future, but if some chinese company comes in Africa it can only be positive.
    Viettel come in few countries (Timor Leste and Burundi) it rised number of internet users a lot and I hope that in some other countries they will enter till 2020.
    If you look on Myanmar example how competition works.
    From 1 million users in 2014. to 13 million in 2016 year.
    Same would be in Ethiopia if they make same thing.

  • Tome

    Nice article.
    About satellite.
    You forgot to mention Angola satellite which they lunched.
    They had some problems with connection, but last what I read russians succeed to make connection, so it’s not lost.

    And infos from Friday about IOX and CAB in CAR. 😉
    Construction work on the 8,850km IOX Cable System
    aiming to link South Africa with India, via landings in Mauritius, the
    autonomous outer island of Rodrigues and the French overseas territory
    of Reunion is progressing as planned, with the system scheduled to be RFS
    by Q4 2019. The cable will have a design capacity of 13Tbps per fibre
    pair and will deliver an ultimate design capacity of over 52Tbps. IOX Cable’s CEO
    Arunachalam Kandasamy said: ‘Our Phase 2 plan is to connect Mauritius
    with Seychelles and Kenya and give a new route into the east African
    market. On our plan is also to further connect into Asia and onwards
    into Europe to ensure that our customers can experience seamless and
    end-to-end connectivity on our network.’ The system will be owned and
    operated by Mauritius-based IOX Cable Ltd and is being built by Alcatel Submarine Networks (ASN).

    The African Development Bank (AfDB) has announced that financing has been agreed for the Central African Republic (CAR) component of the Central Africa Backbone (CAB)
    project. The AfDB will provide EUR16.7 million (USD20 million) for the
    project, while the EU will grant an additional EUR16.6 million. The
    project will enable CAR to begin the
    operations and development of its national fibre-optic backbone and
    provide it with its first international fibre routes with neighbouring
    Cameroon and Congo. The project is to be implemented over the period
    2018-2021, and will comprise the deployment of 1,000km of fibre-optic
    cable along the following two routes:
    (interlinking with Cameroon); and Bangui-Berberati-Nola-Bayanga-Bomassa
    (Congo). There are also plans to establish a local urban loop of 50km
    in Bangui. The project’s executing agency, the Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications (MPT),
    will soon launch a call for applications for a company to manage the
    national backbone. The private partner will be responsible for the
    technical operation of the national fibre-optic backbone and the
    marketing of available capacity for interested operators.

  • Nice catch on Angosat. Forgot about that one.